A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
